Probability Questions (With detailed answers)

Probability Questions

Probability Questions

1.

An individual is picked at random from a group of 52 athletes. Suppose that 26 of the athletes are female of which 6 are swimmers. Also, there are 10 swimmers among male athletes.

(a) Given that the individual picked is a female, find the probability that she is a swimmer.
(b) Given that the individual picked is a swimmer, find the probability that he is a male.
2.

A basket contains 10 apples and 20 oranges out of which 3 apples and 5 oranges are defective. If we choose two fruits at random, what is the probability that either both are oranges or both are non-defective?

3.

A packing plant fills bags with cement. The weight X kg of a bag of cement can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 50kg and standard deviation 2kg.

i. Find P(X > 53)
ii. Find the weight that is exceeded by 99% of the bags
iii. Three bags are selected at random, find the probability that two weigh more than 53kg and one weighs less than 53kg.
4.

From experience a high-jumper knows that he can clear a height of at least 1.78m once in 5 attempts. He also knows that he can clear a height of at least 1.65m on 7 out of 10 attempts. Assuming that heights the high-jumper can reach follow a Normal Distribution,

(a) Draw a sketch to illustrate the above information
(b) Find to three decimal places, the mean and standard deviation of the heights the high-jumper can reach.
(c) Calculate the probability that he can jump at least 1.74m.
5.

A drinks machine dispenses coffee into cups. A sign on the machine indicates that each cup contains 50ml of coffee. The machine actually dispenses a mean amount of 55ml per cup and 10% of the cups contain less than the amount stated on the sign. Assuming that the amount of coffee dispensed into each cup is normally distributed, find;

(a) The standard deviation of the amount of coffee dispensed per cup in ml,
(b) The percentage of cups that contains more than 61ml
(c) Following complaints, the owners of the machine make adjustments. Only 2.5% of cups now contain less than 50ml. The standard deviation of the amount dispensed is reduced to 3ml. Assuming that the amount of coffee dispensed is still normally distributed, find the new mean amount of coffee per cup.
Probability Questions with Detailed Solutions

Probability Questions with Detailed Solutions

Question 1

An individual is picked at random from a group of 52 athletes. Suppose that 26 of the athletes are female of which 6 are swimmers. Also, there are 10 swimmers among male athletes.

(a) Given that the individual picked is a female, find the probability that she is a swimmer.

Solution:

We use conditional probability:

P(Swimmer | Female) = Number of female swimmers / Total number of females

Given:

  • Total females = 26
  • Female swimmers = 6

P(Swimmer | Female) = 6/26 = 3/13 ≈ 0.2308 or 23.08%

(b) Given that the individual picked is a swimmer, find the probability that he is a male.

Solution:

First, find total number of swimmers:

Female swimmers = 6
Male swimmers = 10
Total swimmers = 6 + 10 = 16

Now use conditional probability:

P(Male | Swimmer) = Number of male swimmers / Total number of swimmers

P(Male | Swimmer) = 10/16 = 5/8 = 0.625 or 62.5%

Question 2

A basket contains 10 apples and 20 oranges out of which 3 apples and 5 oranges are defective. If we choose two fruits at random, what is the probability that either both are oranges or both are non-defective?

Solution:

Total fruits = 10 apples + 20 oranges = 30

Case 1: Both are oranges

Number of ways to choose 2 oranges from 20:

C(20, 2) = 20!/(2! × 18!) = 190

Case 2: Both are non-defective

Non-defective apples = 10 - 3 = 7
Non-defective oranges = 20 - 5 = 15
Total non-defective = 7 + 15 = 22

Number of ways to choose 2 non-defective fruits:

C(22, 2) = 22!/(2! × 20!) = 231

Overlap: Both are oranges AND non-defective

Number of ways to choose 2 non-defective oranges:

C(15, 2) = 15!/(2! × 13!) = 105

Using the inclusion-exclusion principle:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

= C(20,2)/C(30,2) + C(22,2)/C(30,2) - C(15,2)/C(30,2)

= (190 + 231 - 105)/435 = 316/435 ≈ 0.7264 or 72.64%

Question 3

A packing plant fills bags with cement. The weight X kg of a bag of cement can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 50kg and standard deviation 2kg.

i. Find P(X > 53)

Solution:

First, calculate the z-score:

z = (x - μ)/σ = (53 - 50)/2 = 1.5

Using standard normal distribution tables:

P(X > 53) = P(Z > 1.5) = 1 - P(Z ≤ 1.5) = 1 - 0.9332 = 0.0668 or 6.68%

ii. Find the weight that is exceeded by 99% of the bags

Solution:

We need to find x such that P(X > x) = 0.99, which means P(X ≤ x) = 0.01

Find z-score corresponding to cumulative probability 0.01:

z ≈ -2.326 (from standard normal tables)

Convert back to original scale:

x = μ + zσ = 50 + (-2.326)(2) ≈ 50 - 4.652 ≈ 45.348 kg

Therefore, 99% of bags exceed approximately 45.35 kg.

iii. Three bags are selected at random, find the probability that two weigh more than 53kg and one weighs less than 53kg.

Solution:

From part (i), P(X > 53) = 0.0668
Therefore, P(X ≤ 53) = 1 - 0.0668 = 0.9332

This is a binomial probability problem with n=3, k=2, p=0.0668

P(2 >53 and 1 ≤53) = C(3,2) × (0.0668)² × (0.9332)¹

= 3 × 0.004462 × 0.9332 ≈ 0.0125 or 1.25%

Question 4

From experience a high-jumper knows that he can clear a height of at least 1.78m once in 5 attempts. He also knows that he can clear a height of at least 1.65m on 7 out of 10 attempts. Assuming that heights the high-jumper can reach follow a Normal Distribution,

(a) Draw a sketch to illustrate the above information

Solution:

[Visual sketch would show:]

  • A normal distribution curve with mean μ and standard deviation σ
  • 1.78m marked on the right tail with area to the right = 1/5 = 0.2
  • 1.65m marked further left with area to the right = 7/10 = 0.7
(b) Find to three decimal places, the mean and standard deviation of the heights the high-jumper can reach.

Solution:

We have two equations:

1. P(X > 1.78) = 0.2 ⇒ P(X ≤ 1.78) = 0.8
Corresponding z-score ≈ 0.842

2. P(X > 1.65) = 0.7 ⇒ P(X ≤ 1.65) = 0.3
Corresponding z-score ≈ -0.524

Set up equations:
(1.78 - μ)/σ = 0.842
(1.65 - μ)/σ = -0.524

Solving these simultaneously:
From first equation: μ = 1.78 - 0.842σ
Substitute into second equation:
(1.65 - (1.78 - 0.842σ))/σ = -0.524
(-0.13 + 0.842σ)/σ = -0.524
-0.13/σ + 0.842 = -0.524
-0.13/σ = -1.366
σ ≈ 0.0952

Then μ ≈ 1.78 - 0.842(0.0952) ≈ 1.78 - 0.080 ≈ 1.700

Final answers:
Mean (μ) ≈ 1.700 m
Standard deviation (σ) ≈ 0.095 m

(c) Calculate the probability that he can jump at least 1.74m.

Solution:

Using μ = 1.700, σ = 0.095:

z = (1.74 - 1.700)/0.095 ≈ 0.421

P(X > 1.74) = P(Z > 0.421) = 1 - P(Z ≤ 0.421) ≈ 1 - 0.6635 ≈ 0.3365 or 33.65%

Question 5

A drinks machine dispenses coffee into cups. A sign on the machine indicates that each cup contains 50ml of coffee. The machine actually dispenses a mean amount of 55ml per cup and 10% of the cups contain less than the amount stated on the sign. Assuming that the amount of coffee dispensed into each cup is normally distributed, find;

(a) The standard deviation of the amount of coffee dispensed per cup in ml,

Solution:

Given:

  • μ = 55 ml
  • P(X < 50) = 0.10

Find z-score corresponding to P(Z < z) = 0.10:
z ≈ -1.2816

z = (x - μ)/σ
-1.2816 = (50 - 55)/σ
σ = -5/-1.2816 ≈ 3.901 ml

(b) The percentage of cups that contains more than 61ml

Solution:

Using μ = 55 ml, σ ≈ 3.901 ml:

z = (61 - 55)/3.901 ≈ 1.538

P(X > 61) = P(Z > 1.538) = 1 - P(Z ≤ 1.538) ≈ 1 - 0.938 ≈ 0.062 or 6.2%

(c) Following complaints, the owners of the machine make adjustments. Only 2.5% of cups now contain less than 50ml. The standard deviation of the amount dispensed is reduced to 3ml. Assuming that the amount of coffee dispensed is still normally distributed, find the new mean amount of coffee per cup.

Solution:

Given:

  • New σ = 3 ml
  • P(X < 50) = 0.025

Find z-score corresponding to P(Z < z) = 0.025:
z ≈ -1.96

z = (x - μ)/σ
-1.96 = (50 - μ)/3
μ = 50 + 1.96 × 3 = 50 + 5.88 = 55.88 ml

The new mean is approximately 55.88 ml.

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